Or the tsunamis, or the floods or the droughts. To the surprise of absolutely no one who has been following developments in the international climate change arena, the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 Degrees on the impact of climate change has been released and it contains some alarming warnings.
It was expected to be critical and controversial but it’s not to those who have been following the compromises made over recent years. Under the existing Paris Agreement, governments agreed to try to limit climate change to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with an added ambition to keep warming to 1.5 degrees.
According to the report, however, the world is currently on track to hit 3 degrees. This could have a significant impact. With regard to heat waves, for example, 14% of the world are exposed to significant heat waves every five years. If the global temperature increase goes to 2 degrees, that increases to 37% of the population.
There is growing concern from every sector that action must be accelerated. Following the work of the Task Force on Climate Related Financial Disclosure, investors the world over are demanding that portfolio companies assess the physical risk of climate change to their operations. Soon it’s likely there will be a demand for the assessment of wider systemic risks to people, supply chains and societies. International agencies are working together to understand how to measure and manage the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)..
There is little doubt that the process of addressing climate change has been delayed and curtailed by politics. No government, which exists based on the support of the status quo, wants to admit that the way we live our lives has got to change. The real question is whether we accept that change is inevitable and adapt to the challenge, or wait until it’s too late and the lessons of history play out, with wars fought over increasingly scarce resources.
The Nobel Committee has now recognized the importance of addressing climate change. William Nordhaus and Peter Romer were awarded the Economics Prize for their work in assessing the economic risk of climate change and unsustainable development. In the end, economics is an attempt to describe and understand the allocation of resources – something that is increasingly important in today’s world. And in many ways the prize could be considered as for integrating technological innovations into macro-economics.
It is in this integration of technological innovation that solutions to our wider problems could be found. There is little question that the necessary technologies to address decarbonization and sustainable development exist. The IPCC report's authors say that rapid changes must take place in four key parts of society:
- energy generation
- land use
- cities
- industry
What we need on top of technology is an overarching, holistic approach that understands the impact of actions beyond one silo. It means technology within the context of applied societal change.
Much of the focus of action to date has been on the role of renewable energy and the decarbonization of the power sector. Access to sustainable, reliable, and affordable energy underpins many of the SDG’s and is, according to Adnan Amin, Director General of the International Renewable Energy Agency, key to decarbonizing the economy in the way that is in line with the Paris Agreement.
When we think about energy we have to think about end use now, not just generation. We need to think about heating and cooling. For example, the majority of air conditioners today operate outside serious hot zones. Global energy demand from air conditioners is expected to triple by 2050, requiring new electricity capacity the equivalent to the combined electricity capacity of the United States, the EU and Japan today. The global stock of air conditioners in buildings is expected to grow to 5.6 billion by 2050, up from 1.6 billion today – which amounts to 10 new ACs sold every second for the next 30 years, according to a May 2018 report from the International Energy Agency. Every action we take in a world of growing population and affluence is going to have an impact, and we need to change the trajectory of our development.
IRENA has reported that it's analysis shows that renewable energy and energy efficiency represent the most cost-effective pathway for achieving 90% of the energy-related CO2 emission reductions needed to meet the ‘well below 2 degrees objective’ of the Paris Agreement. According to Amin, “Renewables already account for around a quarter of global electricity generation. In the last six years, renewable power capacity additions outpaced additions from fossil fuels and nuclear power combined. However, if we are to meet our climate goals, renewables deployment must accelerate six times faster than today.”
Focusing only on renewable generation is not enough though, cautions Harald Heubaum, an energy and climate policy expert at the University of London. “Updating the grid, investing in distributed storage, introducing demand response measures and, critically, addressing land use and land-use change are all things we also need to do as a matter of urgency,” he says. We face challenges far beyond energy alone however and disruption is coming one way or the other.
In Poland, there are demonstrations of concern that climate goals will destroy the coal industry. The probable new Brazilian President is supportive of mining and logging. Yet since the digital revolution in the 20th century, hundreds of industries have been destroyed, have changed or evolved. The pace of technological revolution is accelerating and it won't be slowing down in the near future. Our choices are to be reactive and support short term gains or to work together to achieve a more equitable, cleaner and sustainable future.
"All the technologies are available to make a Smart Earth but a clear political strategy to achieve Smart Governance is missing. Getting there will need a paradigm shift in the political priorities towards long term investment in people, technology and governance by both the public and private sectors," says Dr Feja Lesniewska, STEaPP, UCL. Digital technologies, machine learning, AI, predictive algorithms and the like will enable us to manage our challenges more effectively. Whether it's self-healing grids that can continue to provide power after grid malfunction, natural disaster or terrorist attacks; distributed water treatment centers that ensure people can drink, or 3D printing, reusable buildings, sustainable cities and transportation – we have the tools to solve our problems.
What we seem to have lacked to date is the overall will to implement tough decisions, and an inability to understand that we are facing a systemic challenge. Tinkering around the edges is not going to solve the problem. What we need is the development and deployment of enabling policies, market frameworks, technology options and capacity building through a holistic and systemic approach. Whether that means taking a closer look at the circular economy, gaining better understanding of the life-time impact of consumer and corporate choices, or ensuring that we are working towards the same sustainability goals, what do we have to lose? Change is coming whether we like it or not and if we take control of the process, worst case scenario - we end up with a cleaner, fairer, more livable world.
