Fantastic Fall Weather with No Impacts from Hurricane Ian in Alabama

FEELING GREAT OUTSIDE: No threat of rain for Alabama the rest of this week as each day will feature pleasant afternoons with highs in the mid to upper 70s, and splendid nights with lows mostly in the upper 40s to low 50s. We will mention breezy conditions at times the rest of this week, due to the pressure gradient wind field around Hurricane Ian to our south and east. Most of Alabama is under a Red Flag Warning as the combination of breezy conditions and very low humidity will increase our wildfire dangers the next few days. Please no outdoor burning!!!

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HURRICANE IAN: At 500 AM EDT, the center of Hurricane Ian was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 82.9 West. Ian is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph. This general motion with a reduction in forward speed is forecast today, followed by a turn toward the north on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to approach the west coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area this morning, and move onshore later today. The center of Ian is forecast to move over central Florida tonight and Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday.

Ian

Very recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph with higher gusts. Ian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible before Ian reaches the coast of Florida. Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane. Weakening is expected after landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches).

On the current forecast track, Ian should make landfall near Fort Meyers, after landfall the system should track just south of the Interstate 4 corridor through the Orlando area and could move back close to the water on the Atlantic side of Florida. The track of the system after landfall continues to shift east some, which mean less potential impacts on Alabama.

It is starting to look like our rain chances are coming down more for the weekend. We will mention the chance for a few showers for the counties along the Georgia border, but it really looks like most of the rain stays east of Alabama. Alabama and the Central Gulf Coast (Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach) will remain on the dry, offshore flow side of the circulation (the west side with a north wind). Rip currents could be a threat, but the weather will be great this weekend. The big impact in terms of surge, heavy rain, and a tornado threat will be along and east of the circulation center in the Florida Peninsula, not the Panhandle.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: It looks like the rain shield associated with Ian will stay east of Alabama over Georgia and the Carolinas and we can almost remove the rain chances for the weekend. Saturday will feature a mix of sun and clouds, breezy conditions and a high in the upper 70s. Sunday looks like a beautiful day with ample sunshine along with a high in the low 80s. The dry weather will likely continue next week; we see no major rain event for the state for the next 7-10 days.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For most of the high school games in the state Friday night, for now the weather looks dry with temperatures falling through the 60s.

Saturday, Alabama travels to Fayetteville to take on Arkansas (2:30p CT kickoff)… the sky will be sunny with temperatures in the low 80s as the game begins. No risk of rain.

Auburn hosts LSU Saturday evening (6:00p CT kickoff) at Jordan-hare Stadium. Again, there could be some light rain near the Georgia line, and temperatures hovering around 70 degrees during the game. A bit breezy, but the weather won’t be dangerous as the track continues eastward.

RACE WEEKEND: The could be a shower Saturday at Talladega, but this shouldn’t be a big deal. Sunday looks dry with highs will be in the mid 70s both days.

Have an whimsical Wednesday!!!
Ryan

Categories: Daily Forecast, Weather