COWBOYS

Oklahoma State bowl projections still unclear, but Texas Bowl emerges as strong candidate

Scott Wright
Oklahoman

STILLWATER — Less than two months after looking the part of a College Football Playoff contender, Oklahoma State finds itself at the tail end of a 7-5 regular season that leaves its bowl future in a mess of uncertainty.

The Cowboys are still an exciting team with some national recognition, and good television ratings, even in the latter part of the season.

But losing five of the final seven games took some shine off what the program offers bowl executives right now.

With six Big 12 teams jammed in the middle of the standings between 8-4 and 6-6, the selection process is difficult to predict heading into Sunday, when matchups will be announced.

In terms of Big 12 bowl tie-ins, the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio gets the first pick after the New Year’s Six bowls are set.

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A year after going to the Fiesta Bowl, it is unclear exactly where Oklahoma State might end up for the postseason this year.

It seems virtually impossible that the Cowboys would be the first team off the heap, but they could slide in just about anywhere else after that.

The good news for OSU fans is that they don’t need to worry about scoreboard-watching. This weekend’s action shouldn’t impact the Pokes’ destination, only the possible opponent. 

The Big 12 has eight bowl-eligible teams, and TCU is virtually guaranteed either a playoff spot or a New Year’s Six bowl. And Kansas State is basically locked into the Sugar Bowl, regardless of the Big 12 title game outcome. The only thing that could derail that plan is if TCU wins the Big 12 championship but somehow doesn’t get a playoff berth.

Here’s a look at the most likely bowl destinations for OSU and who they might face:

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Cheez-It Bowl

Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. Dec. 29, Orlando, Fla.

Cowboys’ chances: It’s looking less likely that Orlando is the destination spot for OSU. The Pokes have been there in two of the previous five years, and the bowl organizers might want to grab a fresher face. Of the other Big 12 options, only OU and Baylor have been to the Orlando game, and neither since 2015. Texas could still be available here, and as you’ll see below, North Carolina — coached by former Longhorn leader Mack Brown — is a potential opponent. Given the chance, it would be hard for anyone to pass up that matchup. 

Who they would face: The Big 12 will draw an ACC opponent here. Unless North Carolina pulls the upset over Clemson in the conference title game, the Tar Heels are a serious contender. Florida State is an option as well. OSU has never faced North Carolina. Florida State has a 4-1 record against the Pokes, the last meeting a 37-31 FSU win in 2014. 

Major projections: 247 Sports vs. North Carolina, Sporting News vs. North Carolina

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Oklahoma State's Brennan Presley had a breakout game against Miami in the 2020 Cheez-It Bowl.

Texas Bowl

Kickoff: 8 p.m. Dec. 28, Houston

Cowboys’ chances: Lots of national writers project this, and it makes sense. The Cowboys have a good fanbase in the Houston area and would bring a decent crowd. But it could come down to what the other bowls do before this pick. OU has never been to the Texas Bowl, so officials might jump at the chance to bring in the Sooners. Baylor is closer to Houston and might offer more promising ticket sales. OSU was there in 2019, when it lost to Texas A&M, so the bowl reps know what they’re getting with the Cowboys.

Who they would face: While many folks project the Cowboys here, the potential opponents are all over the place, since it’s a pick from the middle of the SEC lineup. Mississippi State, and always-entertaining head coach Mike Leach, might head the list, but Kentucky, Florida, Missouri, which OSU played in the 2018 Liberty Bowl, or Arkansas, which is on OSU’s future schedules starting in 2024, could be options. 

Major projections: ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura vs. Mississippi State, ESPN’s Mark Schlabaugh vs. Missouri, CBS Sports vs. Kentucky, CollegeFootballNews.com vs. Mississippi State, SI.com vs. Arkansas

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OSU coach Mike Gundy walks along the sideline during a 24-19 loss to West Virginia on Nov. 26 in Stillwater.

Liberty Bowl

Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. Dec. 28, Memphis

Cowboys’ chances: Like above, it all depends on who is available here. Would the Liberty Bowl go for the idea of reigniting the Kansas-Missouri rivalry, thus dipping down to the bottom of the Big 12 pool? Would it be drawn to pitting OU offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby against his former boss, Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss? Maybe. But something like Mike Gundy against Kentucky’s Mark Stoops could bring some juice, too.

Who they would face: This is another Big 12-SEC matchup, so the list of teams that were possible for the Texas Bowl could also end up here. Someone like Ole Miss, which the Cowboys have played in three bowl games over the past 20 years, could pop up as well. 

Major projections: Action Network vs. Kentucky, USA Today vs. Arkansas

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Guaranteed Rate Bowl

Kickoff: 9:15 p.m., Dec. 27, Phoenix

Cowboys’ chances: Most likely, this is as far as they’d fall, which would be an odd bookend to the 2022 calendar year. It began with a Jan. 1 win over Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl and could end back in the Phoenix area in a lesser game against a bottom-level Big Ten team. But the weather should be nice.

Who they would face: The Big Ten provides the opponent here, with Maryland and Wisconsin seeming the most likely. Those are two teams the Pokes have never faced, so it would offer some intrigue from that perspective.

Major projections: Athlon Sports vs. Maryland

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Other possibilities

Frisco Bowl: Dec. 17 in Frisco, Texas, vs. Group of Five opponent

Armed Forces Bowl: Dec. 22 in Fort Worth, Texas vs. AAC or C-USA opponent

First Responder Bowl: Dec. 27 in Dallas, vs. ACC or AAC opponent

Cowboys’ chances: It seems like a stretch that OSU would fall to the bottom of the list of bowl-eligible Big 12 teams, but you never know. 

Major projection: None